Introduction
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84
85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101
102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118
119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135
136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146
In empirical works employing causal maps, researchers usually address the content,
structure or behavior of causal maps (a point that was elaborated in Chapter I). Contentbased
studies typically focus on the specific concepts in a causal map or the differences
among concepts across maps. Structure refers to the pattern of relationships, or the
differences among patterns in comparative studies. Indeed most of the studies reported
in this book have chosen to focus on content or structure.
By the term, “the behavior of causal maps” we mean the prediction or analysis of
decisions or actions that one can make, based on a given causal map. Some examples
will illustrate the meaning of this definition. For example, if a firm constructed a
competitor’s causal map with industry conditions as a set of causes and strategic actions
as consequences, the firm may be interested in using the causal map to predict the
behavior of its competitor, i.e., predicting its competitor’s strategic actions. This is of
great interest in competitive intelligence systems. In another sense, behavior could refer
to the analysis of the consequences of specific policy actions initiated by a firm. As an
example, in Information System (IS) design work, if a causal map of the implementation
process is constructed (that embraces relevant stakeholders), then designers can assess
the consequences of various managerial alternatives in order to identify satisfactory
actions that can be initiated by the management during implementation.
The analysis of the behavior of causal maps remains the Holy Grail in research using
causal mapping. Although the analysis of behavior is much more prevalent in intervention
contexts, empirical research on the behavior of causal maps is almost non-existent.
This has been partly due to the absence of easily accessible methodological tools and
theoretical lenses. Thus, the primary goal of this chapter is to invite future research in
causal map theory focusing on behavior, not merely the content and structure of the
maps. Specifically, the chapter aims to: 1) review and summarize promising avenues to
connect causal maps and behavior; and 2) enumerate some specific tools to deploy in
each avenue.
The scheme of this chapter is as follows: In the next section, we will provide an overview
of the fruitful approaches to examining the behavior of causal maps. Following that, we
will deal with three simulation approaches. Next we will sketch the empirical approach that
we are beginning to witness in some disciplines. We will conclude with a comparative
analysis of these approaches.
At the outset, we want to make one observation to place our discussion in perspective:
Our approach is to identify fruitful, but not yet tested techniques for the analysis of the
behavior of causal maps. Only as these techniques are put to use, will we know their
relative merits or applicability. Thus, this chapter represents a preliminary guide to the
uncharted territories that remain in the methodology of causal mapping.