Chapter V
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Belief Function
Approach to
Evidential Reasoning
in Causal Maps
Rajendra P. Srivastava
University of Kansas, USA
Mari W. Buche
Michigan Technological University, USA
Tom L. Roberts
University of Kansas, USA
Abstract
The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate the use of the evidential reasoning
approach under the Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of belief functions to analyze
revealed causal maps (RCM). The participants from information technology (IT)
organizations provided the concepts to describe the target phenomenon of Job
Satisfaction. They also identified the associations between the concepts. This chapter
discusses the steps necessary to transform a causal map into an evidential diagram. The
evidential diagram can then be analyzed using belief functions technique with survey
data, thereby extending the research from a discovery and explanation stage to testing
and prediction. An example is provided to demonstrate these steps. This chapter also
provides the basics of Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions and a step-by-step
description of the propagation process of beliefs in tree-like evidential diagrams.